Choosing
A Space Age Or A Stone Age
Arthur R. Woods and Marco C. Bernasconi
A slightly edited version of this essay appeared in
Space News - Oct. 2- 8, 1995
There
is no need to list the many challenges facing humanity
as it enters the next century. Be they environmental, political,
economic or social, the problems are both obvious and
immediate.
Most
can be linked to the overwhelming success of the human
species over the past 200 hundred years - a success that
has resulted
in it occupying every available niche and exploiting every
available earthly resource for living, working and maintaining
its society.
With the human population presently growing at a rate of
almost
100 million persons a year, is it not too soon to ask a
fundamental question: "Has humanity outgrown its home planet
Earth?"
While most people do acknowledge - at least on an intellectual level - that the
Universe is extremely large, they instinctively assume that the relevance of
the Universe (beyond Earth) on human affairs is nil. Comparing our physical planet
to the rest of the Universe, or even more modestly to the rest of the Solar System,
it is apparent that Earth is a just a very small piece of reality. Therefore,
if one considers the Universe, its potential significance for our common future
is proportional to the ratio between it and our small planet with its finite
and rapidly disappearing resources. Thus, human destiny on Earth is irrevocably
linked to human destiny in space.
Even those who do recognize in some way the significance of human activities
in space, tend to consider them to be very "near Earth" activities which
support our current society in a political and, to a smaller extent, economic
manner.
As a consequence, even this group would value space development and astronautics
as a human activity to be developed within the context of the available
financial resources. Most people in the general public would likely agree
that: On
Earth there are more immediate and pressing concerns and that, as an important
area
for human activity, space is a luxury that society can postpone. However,
as pointed out by space pioneer Krafft Ehricke in 1970:
"While civilization is more than a high material living standard,
it is nevertheless based on material abundance. It does not thrive
on abject poverty or in an atmosphere
of resignation and hopelessness. It needs vigor as well as vision.
Therefore the end objectives of solar system exploration are social
objectives in the sense
that they relate to, or are dictated by, present and future human
needs."
An analysis of society's current approaches to meeting
the challenges of
the future can be categorized into two scenarios:
- The
End of Cornucopia - when the current business-as-usual
approach to human affairs meets the carrying capacity
of the planet. This approach is founded on the blind
faith that Life has never been better - so where is the
problem? and that science and technology will find the
appropriate fix when it is forced to do so.
- Unsustainable
Development - when the real concern and reflexive
drive to preserve nature results in measures to husband
and eventually, to ration Earth's dwindling resources
and consequently turns off the economic motor that is
now creating the promise of global prosperity. This approach
relies on a zero-growth philosophy that demands a fundamental
change in human nature - a change which will miraculously
occur when humanity wakes up to the fallacy of its exploitative
ways.
Both of these approaches to the future are futile and ineffectual attempts at
survival, and both are sure prescriptions for much human misery, despotism and
eventually - for the end of civilization. Considering the number of human beings
that are expected to be around in the next 25 years - 8 billion or so - the beginning
of the end of our civilization may be only a generation away.
However, there is another approach to these dismal future scenarios. Called "The
Space Option" it takes into account human nature and still offers
an optimistic approach to meeting humanity's ever increasing needs. It is
an
option that appeals
strongly to the human spirit by offering a creative and realistic approach
to meeting and solving many of our civilization's impending problems.
The Space Option is an evolutionary plan to significantly meet the basic and
anticipated needs of human societies on Earth through the utilization of extraterrestrial
resources - not for the in-situ support of science or exploration - but
rather to apply these resources and/or their products for use on Earth at a conspicuous
level.
Obviously energy from space is central to the implementation of The Space Option.
Unlimited amounts of clean energy imported to Earth from space would significantly
contribute to the restoration of the environment while avoiding the environmental
and political consequences associated with the steady depletion of our fossil
fuel reserves and the increasing use of brown coal and/or nuclear power. Having
a plentiful supply of clean energy would not only perpetuate the lifestyle of
the developed nations, but would continue to provide the basic means for further
stimulating the economies of the developing countries. As such, future generations
would be guaranteed a sufficient supply of energy and other material resources
for their development and today's less fortunate societies would be provided
with hope that they, too, could aspire to improve their living standard beyond
their present situation.
If one considers the true boundary of Earth as defined by its gravitational influence
and not by its atmosphere, then Earth actually has a diameter of 3 million km.
This sphere has 13 million times the volume of the physical Earth and through
it, passes some 30,000 times the amount of solar power which is available on
the surface of Earth. Enormous amounts of other resources, including the Moon,
are located within the borders of this larger and richer planet. Like the territorial
waters surrounding nations - these resources belong to our planet and could and
should be used for its ultimate benefit.
Thus, going into space in the next century may only mean extending our civilization
to the limits of a larger redefined Planet Earth and consequently utilizing
the bountiful resources to be found within. Astronautics, space technology
and the
knowledge that humanity has accumulated over the past 45 years are there
to open up this potentially huge new arena for human activities.
For the environmentalists, The Space Option is the ultimate environmental solution.
For the Cornucopians, it is the technological fix that they are relying on. For
the hard core space community, the obvious by-product would be the eventual exploration
and settlement of the solar system. For most of humanity however, the ultimate
benefit is having a realistic hope in a future with possibilities. Indeed, The
Space Option is humanity's most optimistic approach to its future.
Our civilization is at its peak - we have the means today to implement The
Space Option but not yet the commitment. However, if our species does not
soon embrace
this unique opportunity with sufficient commitment, it may miss its one and
only chance to do so. Humanity could soon be overwhelmed by one or more of
the many
challenges it now faces. The window of opportunity is closing as fast as
the population is increasing. As the 21st century draws near, the
main challenge
to the space community will be informing and then convincing the public of
the viability of The Space Option as the only optimistic alternative to the
other
current approaches to human destiny because our future will be either "A
Space Age or a Stone Age".
Copyright © 1995
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